PHOTO: Joy Joycelyn Andoh, independent candidate for Tarkwa Nsuaem
• Voter Sentiment Shifts Ahead of December Polls
Joy Joycelyn Andoh, an independent candidate for Tarkwa Nsuaem, is leading the race to unseat incumbent MP George Mireku Duker (NPP) and challenger Issah Salifu Taylor (NDC). A recent poll conducted by a Consortium of Statistical Students from Takoradi, University of Coast, and Kumasi Technical Universities reveals a seismic shift in voter sentiment ahead of the December general elections.
According to the poll, which surveyed 10,000 registered voters using stratified random sampling, Andoh is ahead with 40% of the vote, followed by Duker at 31% and Taylor at 29%. The poll’s margin of error is ±2.5%, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey was conducted between [Insert Dates] to capture current voter inclinations.
Survey Methodology
The consortium employed a stratified random sampling method to ensure representation across Tarkwa Nsuaem’s 30 electoral areas and 438 communities. The sample included voters aged 18–65 and balanced rural and urban respondents, reflecting the constituency’s demographics. Data was collected through a mix of in-person interviews and telephone surveys to improve coverage and accuracy.
Out of the 10,000 individuals contacted, 8,500 completed the survey, resulting in a response rate of 85%. The poll was self-funded by the consortium to maintain independence and was peer-reviewed by academics from UCC, Takoradi Technical University and Kumasi Technical University to validate its robustness.
Key Findings
1. Lead Candidate: Andoh’s 40% share demonstrates her rising popularity as a symbol of justice and fairness. Her independent candidacy, stemming from her exclusion from the NPP ticket in 2020, resonates with voters who feel alienated by the dominant two-party system.
2. Voter Realignment: Former NPP and NDC supporters, disillusioned by their parties’ perceived failures, are shifting towards Andoh.
3. Undecided Voters: 23% of voters remain undecided. Among them, 60% expressed a reluctance to support Duker, creating potential growth for Andoh.
Context and Analysis
In 2020, Duker won with 31,946 votes, narrowly defeating the NDC’s Abban, who secured 31,854 votes. Andoh, then an independent candidate, garnered 29,009 votes. The current data indicates a significant realignment, with Andoh capitalizing on grassroots support and dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.
Her rural-centric campaign, focusing on equitable resource distribution, contrasts with Duker’s emphasis on infrastructural achievements and Taylor’s focus on youth employment and education. Political analyst [Insert Name] remarked, “Andoh’s surge reflects the electorate’s appetite for a break from the entrenched two-party dominance.”
Challenges and Opportunities
While Andoh leads the poll, the high proportion of undecided voters could sway the outcome. Duker remains competitive in urban centers, leveraging his incumbency, while Taylor’s policies resonate with younger voters.
The poll highlights growing disillusionment among voters with both the NPP and NDC, presenting Andoh as a credible alternative. Her campaign is not without challenges; ensuring a high turnout among her supporters will be critical to maintaining her lead.
Conclusion
With the December 7 elections approaching, Tarkwa Nsuaem is shaping up as a battleground for political change. Andoh’s performance in the polls signals a potential paradigm shift in Ghanaian politics, challenging the dominance of the NPP and NDC. Whether this momentum will carry her to victory remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the political landscape in Tarkwa Nsuaem is undergoing a transformative moment.
About The Author
